The Office of
the President of India is not a reward bestowed upon an eminent person for a
lifetime of services rendered to the nation or for any other factors.
It’s a serious
constitutional office, the highest office of the land.
I wish to submit
that by withdrawing himself as a candidate in the elections to this office in
this turbulent climate, Dr. Kalam has done a disservice to the nation.
He would have been
a serious challenger to the canny politician Pranab Mukherjee and by his
action, he becomes an accomplice to the smooth and dangerous ascendancy of Mr.
Mukherjee to this key office.
The country is surely bigger than Dr. Kalam.
Not a Routine Matter
No serious
observer of politics in India will look upon the choice of Pranab Mukherjee as
its candidate by the Congress Party as anything but a cynical and calculated as
well as canny move by the party to position its man in the key role of
President in advance of the likely fractured mandate of 2014.
Never before in
the history of elections to the office of the President have we seen a figure
as powerful as Pranab Mukherjee being a candidate.
What’s the
reason and logic behind this move which will require many others pieces to be
repositioned as well on the chessboard of Congress and UPA politics?
If the post of President
was merely a constitutional one, the Congress Party could have nominated any one
of the many luminaries available.
To compare the
role and career of Pranab Mukherjee to that of K. R. Narayanan or R.
Venkataraman would be to overlook obvious differences in scale in the roles
played by those former presidents in the running of those governments and the
role played by Mr. Mukherjee in the running of the present government.
We have lost
count of the number of times Pranabda
has been called upon to play the role of the crisis manager in Kolkata and in
Chennai. He heads countless Groups of Ministers in the Cabinet. He officiates
as the Prime Minister in Cabinet meetings when protocol demands it in the absence
of the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
He is the
de-facto and de-jure proverbial no. 2 man in the present government which is a
complex coalition with a weak prime minister who is bereft of a grassroots
political base himself. Who is kidding themselves that Indira Gandhi ever would
have allowed to weaken herself to SUCH an extent by letting someone else in her
government have THIS much power?
So no. the
candidature of Mr. Mukherjee is not a routine affair from any perspective.
Calculations and Compulsions
Why doesn’t a
Bengali want to see another Bengali rise to the highest office? Is it mere your
garden variety jealousy and the legendary crab-pulling-down-another-crab nature
of Indians at work? Mamata Banerjee is not a meteor who has suddenly appeared
across the political firmament of India. She has struggled for 30 years
sometimes putting her life in some threat to reach where she has.
I think she
understands that Pranab Mukherjee has been a Congressman for 40 years who has ensured
him viability by being faithful to The Family. He is not going to suddenly
forego his allegiances after four decades. Not unless he develops amnesia or
Alzheimer’s.
As the finance
minister, he must have acquired an insight into many dirty financial secrets of
the top political and business leaders and this can come in handy at the
appropriate time. A threat of a threat in the deft hand of a political manager
like Mr. Mukherjee is as powerful in political battles as nuclear weapons are
in real and strategic ones.
Mercurial Mulayam
Meanwhile the
strong man of Uttar Pradesh did a U-turn within 24 hours after joining hands
with Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam Singh Yadav has returned to power in UP after the
recent state elections after being in the wilderness for the last five years. He
fought the Congress in the state elections and now is an ally with the Congress
in the Center. But he won’t join the government because that would be inconvenient
as he wishes to maintain the pretence that he is opposed to the Congress. In the
national elections in 2014, the SP will most likely again battle the Congress
in UP and in the world-according-to-Mulayam, Congress will fare as poorly as it
did in the assembly elections and SP will perform spectacularly. This is also
what is likely to happen in the real world.
Mr. Mulayam
Singh doesn’t belong to a national party. Which is not to say that he doesn’t
have prime ministerial ambitions like Mr. Narendra Modi.
However, Mulayam
Singh’s likely path to the prime ministership is necessarily different from the
path of a Narendra Modi. While Mr. Modi stresses his credentials as an able
administer with an impeccable record of development in Gujarat, that is hardly
going to be anyone’s record with respect to Uttar Pradesh.
The only other
state level politician who has a strong record of development going for him is
Nitish Kumar in the perennially struggling state of Bihar. The man who’s doing
something truly out of the ordinary for UP is probably Bill Gates and he isn’t
in the race to be the prime minister of India.
Mulayam Singh’s
sole focus is to get as many seats as possible in UP and then see where the
other chips fall and then take things forward from there. For now, he is happy
to support anyone Congress nominates as the President as that suits him.
Fighting Over A Lottery Ticket
The NDA
meanwhile presents a peculiar picture of discontent. They’re like a bunch of
friends who have pulled together money to buy a bunch of lottery tickets and
now they have somehow sensed that they’re going to WIN the lottery. So they’re
fighting over who gets to have the winning lottery ticket. Meanwhile, the
results of the lottery will only be announced two years from now, in 2014.
The story of the
present government has been an unending succession of scams, overall weak
economic performance and an inability to provide a progressive vision of a
liberalizing government undertaking much needed and much delayed measures that
will keep India on the much needed high growth trajectory.
So the NDA, or
rather the BJP, sees a chance to return to power that it lost rather
unexpectedly in 2004. And the infighting and jostling has begun to find the
person most suited to lead India come 2014. Mr. Narendra Modi has not been coy
in throwing his hat in the ring decisively. I think the resulting circus could
very well have been avoided.
The Disservice
Admittedly, Dr.
Kalam has not spent the last 30 years in the muddy waters of Indian politics. But
the nuclear tests of 1998 put him unexpectedly in the spotlight. He has
conducted himself admirably and acquired many admirers deservedly. The youth of
India looks upon him as an inspirational figure. I don’t know how many young
people have been actually persuaded to lead a live of service to the nation instead
of being solely devoted to rising up some sort of a ladder – corporate or
otherwise.
When he was
asked to take on the challenges of the Presidency of India in 2002, he didn’t
hesitate. The political scenario then prevalent assured a smooth passage for
himself.
In 2012, things
are different. The path is more perilous. But he was not entirely disinclined
to run for office. He declined ultimately in light of the prevailing scenario.
I think that’s
not fair. Dr. Kalam is probably the only name which can bring the NDA and many
non-Congress, non-NDA parties together. His candidature might even persuade some
UPA constituents to take a hard look at MR. Mukherjee’s candidature.
Mr. Mukherjee
might still win with the support of the opportunistic SP but it is not a shame
to lose when you’re trying to do the right thing.
With Dr. Kalam
out, the route to Rashtrapati Bhawan is clear for Pranab Mukherjee.
The next couple
of years will not see much happening. The government will hobble along. The elections
of 2014 will come around and the result will be mixed mandate with the only
unknown being the health of Sonia Gandhi.
The Congress
might still come out of those elections as the single largest party though with
lesser number of seats than it has today. That will surely persuade it to claim
that it had the mandate from the people. And the BJP will claim that the
present government doesn’t have a mandate if it got less votes than the last
time. In such a scenario, the role of the President becomes crucial as he has
discretion in regards to whom to invite first to form the government.
I believe the
Congress will resort to massive wheeling and dealing – or horse trading,
whatever other terminology you might wish to use – to ratchet up a working
majority and ride past an initial confidence vote in Parliament.
Once it’s in
government with the active connivance of a sitting president, it will be
obviously difficult to dislodge it as the government has access to massive
resources to devote to the task of survival. Narasimha Rao was a master of that
art. Mr. Mukherjee is continuing that tradition. If elected as President, he
will be continue to be an invaluable asset to the Congress Party as he is now.
Dr. Kalam would
have been guilty of having known about the wrong turn that India might take and
not doing anything about it.
In summary,
Abdul Kalam is a true hero of this country. All the more reason why he can’t
choose to play the role of the knight in shining armor. He has to roll up his
sleeves and enter the wrestling arena, even the mud wrestling one.