October 11, 2012

Why Obama Will Still Win in November

The historical record which clearly shows that presidents don't get re-elected when the unemployment rate is high doesn't much reflect the demographic reality of today.
There are not that many white, young, unemployed people who buy into Romney's vision of the free-market creating umpteen millionaires and hence removing poverty and making Social Security, Medicare and other safety nets unnecessary.
May be Obama will win because of these factors even if he comes across as wonky or lackluster or not-aggressive-enough in the debates as the media and all the pundits have been harping on.
It's tough to believe that Americans can be so forgetful about recent economic history when W. came into office with a surplus and there was debate between Gore and W about what to do with that surplus. Bush explicitly cut taxes for the rich as he had promised to do (at a cost of a trillion dollars) and ran up a trillion dollar bill for an unnecessary war in Mesopotamia. The TARP designed by Bush and Hank Paulson cost nearly another trillion dollars.
So Obama got handed the economic mess that he was. He tried to salvage whatever he could from the mess created by Wall. St. and ensured that the economy didn’t  fall off the cliff and also passed Obamacare which gets more Americans insured.
Meanwhile, Romney peddles some utter untruths even going so far as to say that private insurance is cheaper. Obama at least pointed out in the debate about independent studies showing that Medicare has lower administrative costs than pvt. insurers.
No Drama Obama also crushed Hillary Clinton, and then McCain.
Does he have to descend into the mud and remind Americans who killed bin Laden or rub it in to Romney about the "47%" business?
Aren't Americans smart enough to reach their own conclusions? Also, I don't think many hardcore Democrats or Republicans are going to cross over to the other side no matter what the candidates do at this stage.
It's only to persuade the fence sitters. I think No Drama Obama will do a better job of attracting them as well -- unless all those fence sitters happen to be millionaires.
It seems to me the bar was set too low for Romney and when he came out shamelessly swinging and did not commit any gaffes, everyone is going gaga about his performance.
Conversely, the bar was set too high for Obama and when he stuck to the facts, people are saying he failed by his Great Orator standards.
I think it's just that the Democrats are saying: "It's not that *I* have been persuaded by Romney's performance, but I am concerned about the possibility of the *other guy* being persuaded."
Well, relax.
I think, after two more of these are done and Nov. 7 comes around, the headline we'll see will be this:"OBAMA REELECTED"

I posted my 'quick' impressions about the first debate here.

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